Thursday, December 1, 2011

Dalton McGuinty And The Politics Of Seat Redistribution

Today we got word that Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty reaffirmed his support for the Harper Government's plan to add 30 MPs to House of Commons, 15 of which are destined for his province.

"We have convinced (Prime Minister Stephen Harper) and I think a number of other provinces have put pressure on the federal government to do what we believe is the right thing in the circumstances," McGuinty said Wednesday.

"That's the approach that is on the table and that's the one that we have been calling for, and that's the one that we are going to support."

The approach that is not on the table, but in the political ether, is the one put forward by the Liberals to redistribute existing seats within certain constitutional limitations. The House would be capped at 308 Members of Parliament, and some provinces would lose seats while others would gain seats. If the Liberal proposal was implemented, the additional cost of more MPs would be avoided.

Is it really any surprise that McGuinty would support the Conservatives plan rather than the Liberals? Why would McGuinty ruffle the feathers of his provincial counter parts and the prime minister, by endorsing a plan that hasn't got a hope in Hell of becoming law? Not to mention the fact, news reports indicated that McGuinty signed off on the Government's plan during a private meeting with Stephen Harper, prior to its release. Should he do a complete one-eighty just because he's a Liberal?

McGuinty is doing what any smart politician would: he's making the best out of the political realities he's confronted with. However, that does not speak to the wisdom of the respective policies, it speaks only to the politics of the moment. In deed, McGuinty refused to comment on the substance of the Liberal proposal, according to news reports.

But a number of academics have commented on the substance:

Some scholars say the government should consider alternative formulas, including capping the number of seats in the lower chamber.

Under the bill, Ontario would get 15 new seats, Alberta and B.C. would get six and Quebec would receive three more.

“My fear is that Bill C-20 is repeating a crucial mistake from the past,” said Andrew Sancton, a political scientist at the University of Western Ontario. “You might not feel the full effect of the anger now, but if this bill is enacted in its current form, I believe you will increasingly feel that anger as the prospect of many more additional MPs becomes real.”

McGuinty is acting in the best interests of his province: he's advocating for improved representation in the Commons for Ontario and he's not unnecessarily disturbing the federal-provincial applecart.

On the other hand, the Liberal caucus in Ottawa is doing what it's supposed to be doing. To quote Stephane Dion:

“I don’t know how the provincial governments will react,” Dion said. “We think about Canadians first.”

The Liberal universe is unfolding as it should.

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